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"Risk management."
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Supplier risk assessment based on trapezoidal intuitionistic fuzzy numbers and ELECTRE TRI-C: a case illustration involving service suppliers
Many companies today have embraced the concept of risk management, usually in the form of enterprise risk management or supply chain risk management. Both are based on a holistic view of risks. Hence, risks related to specific functions within a company must be considered more broadly than previously. Risks, however, involve uncertainty, and the less specific the context in which risks are viewed, the more uncertainty will be involved. One particular way to express uncertainty is through trapezoidal intuitionistic fuzzy numbers (TrIFNs). In this paper, risks that are relevant for supplier risk assessments are first collected from the literature. Then it is illustrated how the multi-criteria decision analysis method ELECTRE TRI-C can be used for sorting suppliers into risk categories, when the risks as well as some of the method's parameters are expressed with TrIFNs. In order to do this, we make use of a small modification of an existing method for converting TrIFNs into crisp values. The approach is illustrated in a case problem based on a company that is looking for service providers (suppliers) of electrical maintenance. The problem involves 20 suppliers that are sorted into three risk categories based on evaluations from 27 criteria. Results from the case study point to two low risk suppliers. A further ad-hoc analysis suggests one of these to be less risky than the other.
Journal Article
How Flood Experience and Risk Perception Influences Protective Actions and Behaviours among Canadian Homeowners
Canada is a country in the midst of a flood management policy transition that is shifting part of the flood damage burden from the state to homeowners. This transition—as well as the large financial losses resulting from flooding—have created a window of opportunity for Canada to implement strategies that increase property owners' capacity to avoid and absorb the financial and physical risks associated with flooding. This work presents foundational research into the extent to which Canadians' flood experience, perceptions of flood risks and socio-demographics shape their intentions and adoption of property level flood protection (PLFP). A bilingual, national survey was deployed in Spring 2016 and was completed by 2300 respondents across all 10 Canadian provinces. The survey was developed using assumptions in existing literature on flood risk behaviours and the determinants of flood risk management in similar jurisdictions. The paper argues that property owners are not willing to accept greater responsibility for flood risk as envisioned by recent policy changes. This finding is consistent with other OECD jurisdictions, where flood risk engagement strategies have been developed that could be replicated in Canada to encourage risk-sharing behaviour.
Journal Article
A systems approach for modelling supply chain risks
Purpose - With increasing exposure to disruptions, it is vital for supply chains to manage risks proactively. Prediction of potential failure points and overall impact of these risks is challenging. In this paper, systems thinking concepts are applied for modelling supply chain risks. The purpose of this paper is to develop a holistic, systematic and quantitative risk assessment process for measuring the overall risk behaviour.Design methodology approach - A framework for supply chain risk management (SCRM) is developed and tested using an industrial case study. A systematically developed research design is employed to capture the dynamic behaviour of risks. Additionally, a system-based supply chain risk model is conceptualized for risk modelling. Sensitivity modelling results are combined for validating the supply chain risk model.Findings - The systems approach for modelling supply chain risks predicts the failure points along with their overall risk impact in the supply chain network. System-based risk modelling provides a holistic picture of risk behavioural performance, which is difficult to realise through other research methodologies commonly preferred in SCRM research.Practical implications - The developed framework for SCRM is tested in an industry setting for its viability. The framework for SCRM along with the supply chain risk model is expected to benefit practitioners in understanding the intricacies of supply chain risks. The system model for risk assessment is a working tool which could provide a perspective of future disruptive events.Originality value - A holistic, systematic and quantitative risk modelling mechanism for capturing overall behaviour of risks is a valuable contribution of this research. The paper presents a new perspective towards using systems thinking for modelling supply chain risks.
Journal Article
A review of supply chain risk management: definition, theory, and research agenda
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to review the extant literature on supply chain risk management (SCRM, including risk identification, assessment, treatment, and monitoring), developing a comprehensive definition and conceptual framework; to evaluate prior theory use; and to identify future research directions.
Design/methodology/approach
A systematic literature review of 354 articles (published 2000-2016) based on descriptive, thematic, and content analysis.
Findings
There has been a considerable focus on identifying risk types and proposing risk mitigation strategies. Research has emphasised organisational responses to supply chain risks and made only limited use of theory. Ten key future research directions are identified.
Research limitations/implications
A broad, contemporary understanding of SCRM is provided; and a new, comprehensive definition is presented covering the process, pathway, and objectives of SCRM, leading to a conceptual framework. The research agenda guides future work towards maturation of the discipline.
Practical implications
Managers are encouraged to adopt a holistic approach to SCRM. Guidance is provided on how to select appropriate risk treatment actions according to the probability and impact of a risk.
Originality/value
The first review to consider theory use in SCRM research and to use four SCRM stages to structure the review.
Journal Article
Systemic risk in banking ecosystems
In the run-up to the recent financial crisis, an increasingly elaborate set of financial instruments emerged, intended to optimize returns to individual institutions with seemingly minimal risk. Essentially no attention was given to their possible effects on the stability of the system as a whole. Drawing analogies with the dynamics of ecological food webs and with networks within which infectious diseases spread, we explore the interplay between complexity and stability in deliberately simplified models of financial networks. We suggest some policy lessons that can be drawn from such models, with the explicit aim of minimizing systemic risk.
Journal Article